MARKET REPORT - SEPT. 30TH, 2015

 Dramatic changes on the avocado and pear fronts

A little burst of summer this week looks like it will extend to the middle of next week before more normal October weather hits everywhere – which includes a little burst of snow in the long range for Alberta early next week – which is great – cold, snowy, rainy weather always helps keep people indoors and planning a bigger Thanksgiving feast.  That means sales of yams, Russets, Brussels sprouts, cranberries all take a leap – you all know that.  It’s fun to watch how people’s eating habits change, not just on holiday weekends, but seasonally, and annually, and watching how those trends change how we all buy fresh fruit and veg to meet those changing customer tastes.There is another wave of juicing trending now, which has seen a large increase in two items in particular – large cucumbers and bulk beets – year over year sales are substantially higher, with the expectation that a good chunk of those increased volumes are going into the juicer.  On the fruit front our two most dramatic changes are in avocados and pears.  Avocado consumption continues to increase across the US and Canada at an annual rate of 30%.  It used to be that 10% of all avocados were purchased just before Super Bowl, but with such a consistent year-over-year increase, it seems that more and more people are figuring out that guacamole isn’t that hard to make, and that avocados are a great salad addition.  We’re seeing an increase slightly higher – partially because pricing is reasonable, and more people are reaching out for Fair Trade fruit.  Pears, well we don’t know where that is coming from – we are hoping it’s because more and more people are discovering heirloom and dessert pears, with their less gritty, creamy texture – but we’re surprised when our pear sales continue to grow at the rate they are – which is currently a box of pears to two boxes of apples – which is a huge change from just a few years ago – you may be noticing the same thing – if not, just a heads up that this is a trend you should be looking at.Taking a look at this week, as we have mentioned a few times, we are getting shipped lots of huge avocados, and we know this affects your price by the each.  We’ve worked out a deal with Pragor to give us a bit of a break on their bounty of XL fruit, so we will adjust pricing again to reflect that on Friday, and we have dropped the price on our 12 counts on today’s list – please take advantage – nothing looks better than big avocados on the shelf.  We’re also keeping bananas on special until Saturday.Valencia orange pricing is starting to nudge down a bit, same on lemons, as cooler weather sweetens and colours the fruit.  Orchardists are also watching how fast the new crop of navels and the wide range of winter specialty citrus is coming on, keeping their ear to the ground on the first harvest on Mexican Desert Sweets, and looking at their Valencia sales all in the big juggling act all fruit producers go through, and with all those in mind, seems there is more Valencia on the trees for the diminishing market – so prices will drift down by a guess of 10-20% over the next 4 weeks.The strawberry market will start to come off soon, with the Oxnard crop starting harvest.  Oxnard is on the coast, just as Salinas and Watsonville, but much farther south, just north of L.A., and their only great window of opportunity is to fill the supply lines from October through January when Watsonville is finished and Mexico hasn’t hit solid volumes.  That’s why our prices will creep down a bit as well as the market adjusts back up to good supply.The vegetable situation hasn’t changed much, with a bounce back and forth between local and imports – this last few summer like days on the coast has certainly helped increase supply for local greens producers, but expect some supply gaps as we nudge farther into the fall, and expectations that the local season here on the coast could end fairly soon – that all depends on how cold it gets at night, and/or how rainy it gets.  With now a ‘monster’ El Nino starting to shape our fall weather, no one really knows how the next few weeks will shake out.  With lows just above freezing, but no damaging frosts, growers are now stripping fields of tomatoes and eggplant.  The coldest nights of the fall harvest line up with the full moon, and just as it has for 15 years, nothing has changed much.  Expect good supply of those, and a little price-bashing as everyone tries to move their last harvests while quality is good.  Then, in a couple of weeks, that whole category will move south except for OriginO hothouse product.Root crops are all in great shape with full local supply on just about everything.